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One of the best romanticideas explanations of what is an accurate prediction for this statistic, and of the romanticideas limits of divorce statistics, is an April, 2005 New York Times article, "Divorce Rate: It's Not as High as You Think." This kind of thing is probably the best estimate statisticians can come up with, but it is only a prediction of how romanticideas many people currently entering their first marriages will ever get divorced. It is a very rough estimate even if current trends continue unchanged, but it is also subject to change if divorce becomes more or less popular or available. For a more detailed exploration of the nature of this and other divorce rates, see messages on "Divorce Statistics and Interpretation" by Scott Stanley and Paul Amato, November, 1998 Here is an excerpt from the Census Bureau report, with a link to the full report: "The National Center for Health Statistics recently released a report which found that 43 percent of first marriages end in separation or divorce within 15 years.
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